DANGOTE, NUPENG, AND THE NIGERIA OIL ECONOMY: By Wale Akingbade wakingbade@gmail.com

DANGOTE, NUPENG, AND THE NIGERIA OIL ECONOMY:

By Wale Akingbade

wakingbade@gmail.com

As a concerned Nigerian, I follow with interest the ongoing face-off between Dangote Refinery and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG). At the heart of the matter is not just a labor dispute, but a struggle over who controls Nigeria’s oil economy, how fuel is priced, and what it means for the ordinary citizen.

There is a silent battle going on in our oil sector, one that many people may not fully understand. The Dangote Refinery and NUPENG, the union of petroleum and natural gas workers. On the surface, it looks like just another labor dispute, but in truth, it touches the heart of our economy, our fuel prices, and our future as a nation.

NUPENG insists that workers in Dangote’s refinery must join their union. Dangote says no, this is a private company and workers should be free to choose. Behind this fight is the bigger issue of who controls the flow of petroleum products in Nigeria.

Now, Dangote has gone further to promise that his refinery will supply fuel Nationwide , even at cheaper or sometimes free prices just to break any blockade. For ordinary Nigerians, this sounds like good news. Cheaper fuel, more supply, less suffering. Compared to NNPC, Dangote can refine locally, avoid import costs, and bring quality products to the market.

But there is a catch. If Dangote becomes the only reliable supplier, and if NNPC weakens, then Nigeria risks replacing one monopoly with another. Yes, prices may be low today, but what about tomorrow, when competition is gone and the market depends on a single source?

Let me put it in simple terms: imagine a thirsty village in the desert. The government’s well is broken. People queue endlessly for water. Then a rich farmer builds a modern borehole. At first, he gives water freely or cheaply. The people rejoice. But soon, every other seller closes down. Now the whole village depends only on him. If he raises the price tomorrow, who can stop him?

This is the Dangote dilemma.

So, what does this mean for us as citizens? In the short term, we will benefit , lower prices, stable supply, and relief in transportation and goods. In the long term, we must insist that government regulates fairly, encourages competition, and prevents any single hand from holding our fuel destiny.

What This Means for NNPC

If Dangote succeeds in supplying nationwide at lower prices:

NNPC’s market share shrinks.

Government revenue from petroleum imports declines.

The state loses its old role as price stabilizer.

This is both opportunity and risk. Opportunity, because Nigerians enjoy cheaper fuel. Risk, because the state may become dependent on one man’s refinery.

The Buyer’s Advantage

For us citizens, the comparative advantage is clear:

Cheaper prices at the pump.

More stable supply, less panic-buying.

Better product quality that meets modern standards.

This means relief in transport costs, food prices, and business operations.

The Price & Monopoly Dilemma

In the short term, Dangote’s strategy feels like a blessing. Nigerians have suffered too long from high fuel costs, scarcity, and endless queues. But in the long term, the danger is that once NNPC and other competitors are weakened, Dangote could adjust prices upwards. This is a classic monopoly dilemma: the same investment that saves the people today could hold them captive tomorrow.

But let's be clear, Dangote’s refinery is a symbol of private initiative where government failed. We should applaud it. But as Nigerians, we must also ask the hard questions: Who sets the rules? Who protects the people? And who ensures that today’s blessing does not become tomorrow’s burden?

The Bigger Picture

For consumers, it is joy today.

For NUPENG, it is a battle for relevance.

For NNPC, it is a threat to its old monopoly.

For government, it is a balancing act between celebrating private success and guarding against over-dependence.

The Law Is Clear

The Nigerian Constitution and courts have long established the boundaries.

Section 40 of the 1999 Constitution grants every citizen the freedom of association, including the right to join or not join a trade union.

In N.U.E.E v. B.P.E (2010), the Supreme Court declared that compulsory unionism is unconstitutional.

In A.G. Oyo State v. NLC (2003), the Court described forced union membership as a violation of fundamental rights.

In Osawe v. Registrar of Trade Unions (1985), it clarified that while unions can be recognized, membership remains voluntary.

So hmmm, As I reflect on this, I see more than a labor fight. I see a shift in Nigeria’s oil power structure. Dangote’s refinery is proof that private initiative can succeed where government failed. But without careful regulation, Nigeria may simply be trading one monopoly (NNPC) for another (Dangote).

But, the duty of government should be to encourage competition, set fair rules, and protect citizens. The duty of citizens is to stay alert, celebrate today’s gains, but question tomorrow’s risks. Let's Think!!!

Also the main issue with Dangote and Nupeng

The dynamics show that NNPC has largely stepped back from direct fuel production or importation, and NUPENG’s current agitation is more about survival than altruism. Their leverage historically came from their members’ control of tanker distribution, but Dangote’s 4,000-truck fleet is a direct strategic strike against that dominance. This is where the problem is coming from.

If government continues to back Dangote as it clearly seems to be doing NUPENG’s traditional chokehold on distribution will weaken. This is both an opportunity and a risk:

Opportunity because it could finally dismantle the artificial bottlenecks created by unions and state inefficiencies, leading to freer flow of products. Nigerians might enjoy better availability and potentially lower costs.

Risk because if Dangote completely obliterates both NNPC and NUPENG’s relevance, we could drift toward a private monopoly where one company controls refining, distribution, and pricing. That’s an enormous amount of power concentrated in one hand.

So, while Dangote’s efficiency and capacity to deliver are commendable, the long-term solution still lies in ensuring that other players especially modular refineries and independent marketers can coexist and compete. Otherwise, we’ll only be trading one form of monopoly (union/state-driven) for another (private-driven).

The government’s role should be clear: don’t “back” anyone to kill competition, but create a level field where efficiency thrives and Nigerians, not vested interests, are the ultimate winners. My take.

"Because in the end, the refinery may belong to Dangote but the economy belongs to Nigeria"....Wale AKINGBADE